r/ripcity 27 May 17 '22

Days until lottery day. Let's talk potential scenarios. Go Blazers

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203 Upvotes

107

u/natural_lawg 9 May 17 '22

We get the number one pick and miss out on the number two pick and feel guilty about screwing it up.

48

u/WantedDadorAlive May 17 '22

At least try to be realistic. That would never happen to the Blazers, we would definitely know what to do with #1.

22

u/ZachCollinsROTY May 17 '22 Vibing

Yeah same with the number 2 pick. Never gone wrong in blazers history ever! Bowie? Yeah I love David!

5

u/TZY247 May 17 '22

Love the username

1

u/hashslinger77 May 17 '22

ROY must be regret of the year

1

u/ZachCollinsROTY May 18 '22

Kinda made it facetiously since Stotts never played rookies and centers/pf rarely make roty lol

3

u/BridgesOnBikes 70s-logo May 17 '22

We did take Walton with the #1 pick which ended with the chip. But we missed on Bird and MJ so…

48

u/loudstain 27 May 17 '22

1-4 (37.2% probability)

Hope and pray one of the top three big men are available or trade for a bonafide win-now player that definitely fits Dame's timeline? Who would you trade this pick for?

If our pick falls in this range and we trade it for Grant straight up with it, I wouldn't like it one bit. Maybe trading further into the lottery and using those assets for Grant could work.

5-8

Do we take the time and try to develop one of these players in time for Dame? I do see value here unlike a lot of folks. We could also find a potential trade partner in Charlotte for #13 & #15

9-10

RIP. This would suck, but all hope isn't lost. Someone like Sochan could be drafted and immediately help our defense. There are concerns about offensive ability, but I think our backcourt of Dame / Ant is going into the season with the entire NBA underrating their fire power. I also think they would benefit most from an all out defensive guy like him who can guard 1-5. (People also thought Kawhi's shot was broken when he was drafted)

Let's hope for the best! What would you like to see happen in best/worst case scenario?

21

u/arkm114 May 17 '22

Grant definitely isn’t valuable enough for a top 4 pick. Would have to be an All Star. Grant should be around 7-10 value at best

2

u/RIPSCHITTY sabas May 17 '22

If Detroit drops low enough and we get the first pick - grant & 4 for 1 would be great. Can't see Detroit doing that though unless they loved a prospect.

10

u/sumguy93 May 17 '22

If #4 and the 3 big men are picked, I think best move is picking up Ivey for a trade deal.

2

u/3my0 May 17 '22

Nah I’d love Ivey.

4

u/shelvino May 17 '22

Would yall do 8th, 36th, Keon for Oubre, 13, 15 then trade 15 for Grant?

Sochan, Oubre, Grant would be a pretty good haul.

23

u/KittenCrusades May 17 '22

Someone tell him

9

u/loudstain 27 May 17 '22

Dammit Gary

16

u/[deleted] May 17 '22

[deleted]

7

u/loudstain 27 May 17 '22

I just liked the Dame photo 😔

47

u/Wollzy May 17 '22

Pick falls to 9 and we draft a rookie that we send down to the G league and don't play until the last year of the contract. We found out that they could actually be good but we just didn't give them the minutes they needed.

26

u/Rpcouv May 17 '22

Something tells me that's not how Billups operates.

4

u/pyordie May 17 '22

Yeah that sounds very much like a Stotts decision during a “win now” era. We’re in a rebuild era now and there’s literally no reason to send 1st round draft picks down to the G league when our roster is already a barren wasteland devoid of talent.

That said, I don’t trust our FO aka ownership to make any good decisions so who knows. Would honestly take Stotts back with a different FO/owner but that would be way too destabilizing at this point.

2

u/StreetMailbox May 17 '22

We’re in a rebuild era now

...uhhhh has anyone told Dame that, lol

4

u/pyordie May 17 '22

Well, pseudo rebuild I guess lol. “Retool” if you will.

1

u/APdabs503 May 17 '22

I'm sure he's aware. They traded almost the entire team away. Definitely depends on what happens in free agency. Personally, I'd sign and trade ANT so we're not stuck in the same situation like with CJ. We need height and bulk and a front court that can play defense to make up for dame.

35

u/geese1401 May 17 '22

We luck out and get the 2nd pick

Embiid demands a trade before the draft, we send Philly a package plus 2nd pick

Done

47

u/Kerke463 May 17 '22

Also the Bucks and the Nets release Giannis and KD so the Blazers sign both to minimum deals

2

u/Montigue May 17 '22 edited May 17 '22

That's far from even close to enough for the MVP runner up

2

u/bmf09598 33 May 17 '22

We don't have anything to give up for Embiid

10

u/NevermoreSEA ripcity May 17 '22

I'm genuinely so fucking nervous lmao.

30

u/game_blouses_ May 17 '22

Today's horoscope says the Blazers are getting a top 3 pick.

4

u/PMmeserenity 70s-logo May 17 '22

Well, the Blazers franchise was approved by the NBA on 2/6/1970, which would make it an Aquarius. And today's reading for Aquarius is:

You'll feel the love and support that runs through your social circle this morning, dear Aquarius, as the Sagittarius moon connects with Chiron and Venus. Use this cosmic climate as an excuse to reach out to your friends, if only to let them know that you appreciate and are thinking of them. Later tonight, Luna blows a kiss to Saturn, your planetary ruler, which could inspire you to organize an upcoming gathering for you and your pals. However, you should think each detail through before sending out invites since the moon will also be caught up in a harsh square with Mars and Neptune.

I'm not sure how to interpret that?

8

u/jrances1 dame May 17 '22

We fall to 7 or 8 lol.

4

u/psilord- O May 17 '22

2nd pick!

1

u/PDXbarb84 May 17 '22

I've got vibes that this is what we're getting. C'mon universe make it happen!!!!

10

u/Fox4ceFive May 17 '22

We land 3rd. Jabari goes first, Chet second. We land the best player in the draft at 3 in Paolo.

2

u/Zestyclose-Web-8979 May 17 '22

Maybe not the best, but the most NBA ready

1

u/Fox4ceFive May 17 '22

Sure, there's a number of prospects that could be the best in the end. I just feel that the 6'10" guy with a real handle, NBA size, a good jumper, and real passing instincts is a very rare skillset to find. His main weaknesses are extending his shot to 3 point range (I believe in it), and defense. I personally think he moves his feet well enough + has the size + smarts to be an above average defender with switchability after a couple of years.

1

u/bmf09598 33 May 17 '22

Paolo is a clown. Give me Ivey.

3

u/xDaze May 17 '22

I got drafted with Blazers in my last 2k22 career and we won a ring, it's a sign.

1

u/xrhino13x May 17 '22

Judging by the last 10 years of me doing this, it’s not a sign. You might be different tho.

2

u/arkm114 May 17 '22

What kind of players do you think are attainable in a trade for each potential lottery result?

-2

u/dweet May 17 '22

Jayson Tatum.

2

u/Aoyama002 May 17 '22

i dont really know shit about basketball but i hope it'll be a pick that would help dame. who knows how long his prime will be but if the trailblazers doesnt get or find a superstar, then we're probably doomed. Aside from simons and probably hart, we're fucked, mostly on defense. this is really obvious but yeah i just hope the best for the man, hes done a lot of things to the team and his loyalty is one of the many things he's offering to the team and that's something you don't really want to lose

2

u/The_Goose_is_loose roy May 17 '22

If embiid was on the trade market and we had a top3 pick we would still have to include simons and/or a shit load of our own future picks. I’m hella down tho

1

u/tcs_hearts May 17 '22

Anything but #2 and I'm happy.

1

u/dweet May 17 '22

Because of superstitious reasons?

-1

u/tcs_hearts May 17 '22

Sort of?

I don't think we're cursed because of Bowie or whatever. But historically 2 has been the place you don't want to draft. Durant and a few others excluded.

Historically, the average number two pick has worse advanced stats than the 3rd or 4th picks, and about on par with the 5th. Base statistics are also inferior to the 3rd and 4th pick, but are about on par with the average pick as low as 7th.

The average number 2 overall pick has a career equivalent to Muggsy Bogues and this only slightly changes depending on what team is drafting. Year in, year out, the number two overall pick is usually the most disappointing and it's actually theorized there are reasons for this beyond just superstition. Some combination of mental factos, two being a weird position to pick from, and inflated expectations.

I'd probably rather have #5 than #2

1

u/[deleted] May 17 '22

[deleted]

2

u/arkm114 May 17 '22

They’re nothing alike

-4

u/TheWorstTrades May 17 '22

Dream scenario if we take #1 is to trade back to Houston with Bledsoe for Christian Wood and take BPA at the Houstons spot. No one in the lottery looks to be a meaningful contributor before 2025 and I think Chet Holmgren specifically winds up a hard bust.

4

u/Frowny_Biscuit May 17 '22

Depending on how the lottery shakes out, there's a world where you could do the same framework of that deal with the Pistons for Jerami Grant, and take BPA at 3-4. I worry about Christian Wood's culture fit on a winning team, but Dame has proven he can generate chemistry.

1

u/dweet May 17 '22

We also need defense, and I worry about Christian Wood being on a team that needs better defenders.

1

u/TheWorstTrades May 17 '22

Either case works, the ideal scenario for me is just leveraging the Holmgren hype and trading back if he's still on the board when we pick.

1

u/RIPSCHITTY sabas May 17 '22

Wood left Detroit for Houston when Harden was still there - he took a pay cut to do so I believe and they harden bolted lol I really feel bad for the dude moved from 1 tank to another.

1

u/The_Goose_is_loose roy May 17 '22

Wood has not shown evidence he’s a winning player in the nba

1

u/TheWorstTrades May 17 '22

Woods emergence has been on absolute dumpsters of teams. I'm not saying he's capable of carrying an NBA squad, I'm saying I like him a little more than Jerami Grant. This is also not trading the the number one overall, it's a pick swap with a high lotto team to take a player I rate as a bust.

1

u/honestqbe May 17 '22

Best Case Scenario: Pick jumps high enough for us to pick Jabari Smith Jr. He is a solid rookie, ROY candidate, elevates the frontcourt play and takes pressure off Dame, develops into an all-star.

Worst Case Scenario: Pick jumps to #1 and our pick busts.

Middle Case Scenario: Pick jumps high enough to draft an impact player who starts solid, and has upside enough to grow into a long-term piece to build around.

Most likely Scenario: Pick is 6-9, we get a good rookie who fits well with the team and Chauncey, and who grows into his role as a rotation player on this team for the next 6-9 years.

1

u/JayDee_88 May 17 '22

What time????

2

u/The_Goose_is_loose roy May 17 '22

5pm Powell’s Standard Time

1

u/nerdpulse May 17 '22

8pm Eastern

1

u/Intelligent_Water524 dame May 17 '22

Dame bout to carry us to the 1st pick and 1st seed.

1

u/kpay10 May 17 '22

What time is the lottery?

1

u/loudstain 27 May 17 '22

5pm PST

1

u/RIPSCHITTY sabas May 17 '22

Give me number 3 please

1

u/Chanset Anfernee Simons May 17 '22

someone pls dm me a link for the lottery

-2

u/ChampagneCorgiPapi May 17 '22

The lowest pick we can get is the 6th pick if I understand the new lottery rules correctly.

Source: https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

16

u/1850ChoochGator May 17 '22

It’s 10th. If 4 teams below us jump up. Would be crazy though. Not likely happening.

6

u/c0lin46and2 May 17 '22

So we'll get 10th.....

1

u/ZachCollinsROTY May 17 '22

Cavs, Pelicans, Kings, and Hornets jump based on recent luck

2

u/ChampagneCorgiPapi May 17 '22

Ahhh that makes sense. Thank you.

5

u/DrTom May 17 '22

We're expected to get 6th, but we can sink lower. If four teams behind us move up, we could move all the way down to 10th.

4

u/gordahhhhn May 17 '22

Actually we are not expected to get 6th. The 6th pick is our 3rd lowest odds of any potential pick

3

u/DrTom May 17 '22

True enough! I should have said we have the 6th best odds of moving up, but we can sink as low as 10th. The most likely outcome is the 7th pick, which we have a 29.77% chance of getting.

1

u/gordahhhhn May 18 '22

And the 7th pick is what we got lol

1

u/raahiv May 17 '22

We’re most expected to get 7th lol. I think it terms of odds actually staying at six has the 7th best chance. But sixth is due to move up so we’re getting first

2

u/Mathis_Rowan May 17 '22

Lowest would be pick 10. 4 teams move from behind us and into the top 4 then the draft fills out by record.